KEEPER STRATEGY

Since we've accumulated a few n00bs over the past couple of years, and because of certain conversations I've had with league mates (and trade negotiations I and others have had), I thought it would be fruitful to examine exactly what makes a good keeper in our league.

Some might say I'm giving away secrets or a competitive advantage, but considering that keeper trades that totally should have happened in the past haven't happened, I think it will benefit the overall health of the league to do this analysis. So pay attention.

Keeper Round is More Important Than You Think
The general point of this post is that where you get to keep a guy is almost more important than the quality of the guy in the abstract. We all want to keep stars on our teams, but there are only so many of those to go around. Keeping a quality rotation guy in a late round is an underused option. Keeping a star in a late round is the utmost in keeper value. (And keeping a star right around where he'd be drafted anyway isn't really doing much for your team.)

To illustrate this, I'm going to pull some figures from last year's ESPN player rater (which you can find here; keep in mind, these are totals, not averages -- in averages, for instance, Anthony Davis would be a super stud and Russell Westbrook would be a borderline first rounder, but they both missed a significant number of games). If you're not familiar, the player rater uses standard deviations and league averages in each stat category to determine how valuable each player is above the "norm" in each category. The total player rater score is simply all the category scores added together. (Yahoo's ranking system uses a similar, but not exactly the same, formula.)

These figures can give us a sense of the expected value in each round of the draft (and other tiers). I've created this chart as a handy reference. Pay more attention to the numbers than the names:

THE SUPER STUDS				SIXTH ROUND				TWELFTH ROUND
Name	Pick	PR Score		Name	Pick	PR Score		Name	Pick	PR Score
Durant	1	21.31		R Foye	51	6.52		SLivingston	111	3.8
Curry	2	17.53		R Jackson	60	6.01		J Sullinger	120	3.3
LeBron	3	16.55
				SEVENTH ROUND				THIRTEENTH ROUND
FIRST ROUND (REMAINING)				Name	Pick	PR Score		Name	Pick	PR Score
Name	Pick	PR Score		R Hibbert	61	6		D Green	121	3.22
K Love	4	14.54		DWilliams	70	5.51		E Kanter	130	2.88
P George	10	12.67
				EIGHTH ROUND				FOURTEENTH ROUND
SECOND ROUND				Name	Pick	PR Score		Name	Pick	PR Score
Name	Pick	PR Score		T Gibson	71	5.5		R Allen	131	2.85
J Wall	11	12.56		P Gasol	80	5.23		M Morris	140	2.53
C Bosh	20	9.69
				NINTH ROUND				FIFTEENTH ROUND
THIRD ROUND				Name	Pick	PR Score		Name	Pick	PR Score
Name	Pick	PR Score		A Afflalo	81	5.19		J Crawford	141	2.5
P Millsap	21	9.41		B Bass	90	4.92		R Jefferson	150	2.27
T Ariza	30	8.47
				TENTH ROUND				SIXTEENTH ROUND
FOURTH ROUND				Name	Pick	PR Score		Name	Pick	PR Score
Name	Pick	PR Score		Westbrook	91	4.92		GHenderson	151	2.25
L Aldridge	31	8.42		V Carter	100	4.46		MWilliams	160	1.79
K Thompso	40	7.74
				ELEVENTH ROUND
FIFTH ROUND				Name	Pick	PR Score
Name	Pick	PR Score		MBelinelli	101	4.43
G Green	41	7.66		P Mills	110	3.9
T Lawson	50	6.59

That's a lot of data to digest. For those who are more visually inclined, here's the same data in graph form:

Lessons from the Data
Let's see what we can glean from the data.

• The Super Studs are amazing. Look at the numbers. Curry is equivalent to a late first rounder (Paul George or John Wall) PLUS a ninth rounder (Aaron Afflalo). Durant is like a late first plus a late third rounder (Trevor Ariza or LaMarcus Aldridge). Put another way, Curry is worth two Aldridges and Durant is worth two Nic Batums (again, on totals, not averages). It's like being able to start 11 guys instead of 10 every day, with that 11th guy being very valuable.
• 
  
• As the rounds go on, value flattens. Studs are very valuable, first and second rounders are next, and then picks start getting more equivalent (or "linear" in the value progression). Another way to realize this:
• 
  
• The score difference between the top pick and the end of the first round is around 10 points.
• The difference between the beginning of the second and end of the second: 3 points.
• Difference between start of third and end of third: 1 point.
• Every other round: less than 1 point difference from start to finish.
• 
  
• Based on the scores, the average "first rounder" is equivalent in value to two late fifth rounders or three eleventh rounders. Again, it's like being able to play more people in your lineup every day than your opponents.

How to Use This for Keeper Analysis

It's pretty simple. Let's say you've got Paul Millsap (9.41 value) as a fifth round keeper. Is that better than Roy Hibbert (6.00 value) as a fourteenth round keeper? Let's do the math:

• Millsap's value (9.41) - expected value of a 5th rounder (7.1) = 2.31
• Hibbert's value (6.00) - expected value of 14th rounder (2.68) = 3.32

So by this analysis, Hibbert would actually be a better keeper, even if he's a worse player than Millsap and even though both have keeper value.

The essence of this is replacement value and opportunity cost. If you keep Millsap in the fifth, sure, you're getting value there. But if you didn't keep him, you'd still draft a fifth-round-level player -- which replaces a larger proportion of Millsap's value than a 14th-round-level player would replace Hibbert's value.

Another way to look at it -- what's better, A or B?

• (A)  Millsap (9.41) in the 5th  +  a 14th rounder (2.68)  =  12.09
• (B)  A 5th rounder (7.1)  +  Hibbert in the 14th (6.00)  =  13.01

Option B gives you more overall value on your team.

Caveats and Cavills
Of course, this is pretty quick-and-dirty analysis. We play in a head-to-head league, not rotisserie, so averages are probably more indicative of value than totals. And how well you draft makes a big difference -- the guy you draft in the 5th round might end up returning 3rd-round value or he might return 10th-round value. We just don't know until the games start. (Of course, this is why we even have good late-round keepers: some guys outperform their draft slots.) And past performance doesn't guarantee future returns -- we each will evaluate players differently, and so will disagree whether a guy is, say, a 3rd-round level guy or a 5th-round level guy.

But the overall principle still applies: you should be thinking about replacement value and opportunity cost when assessing keeper value. If any of you would have taken me up on my trade offers involving Klay Thompson a couple years ago, you'd now have a current 5th-rounder (by Yahoo pre-ranks; probably a 4th rounder in our league with all the keepers) in like the 10th round -- or, in other words, someone returning 3.5 to 4 surplus player-rater points (the equivalent of having an extra Danny Green, Jimmy Butler, or Josh Smith on your team).

2013-2014 PICK & ROLL CALL LEAGUE AWARDS (and All-Time Ranking Update)

Below are the long-awaited awards from last year. At the end of the post are the updated All-Time Rankings, with some interesting shifts and some close races. There could be some serious movement in the rankings after the 2014-15 season.

P&RCL Awards for 2013-2014

Best Keepers (75 ATPs):  Young Gay Love Favors.  I’ve dominated this the past two years but my Derrick Rose misstep and the Tobias Harris lackluster follow-up knock me out of contention. And that’s saying something, because nobody had a front-to-back awesome keeper year. Chris, however, was closest. Durant is about as sure a sure thing as there is and one of the best keepers despite having no built-in discount as a first-rounder. Sure, Westbrook had a couple more surgeries and wasn’t a sure bet to come back when he did, but the reasonable expectation would have been that he got back to where he did get back to by season’s end. Paul George is a first-rounder in the eleventh and repaid that like he was supposed to. (Oh, and Chris looks to win this next year easily barring some out-of-nowhere explosion from guys like The Greek Freak, Lance Stephenson, or some other late-round guy – or a freak international-basketball-related injury. Man, poor Paul George.)

 
Best Draft (75 ATPs):  Nutcrushers.  Just to reiterate the rules on this one, I try to avoid hindsight as much as possible. The conception is to reward what I consider the best draft at the time of the draft, discounting people lost to injury (if it wasn’t reasonably foreseeable) or out-of-nowhere luck on a breakout campaign. But that’s really hard to do this year.

Three of the best picks in a long time came on late-round gambles (DeAndre for me, Ariza for Alan, and Stephenson for Connor). Of those, Ariza seems the least likely success – Alan got quite lucky on that one, and I think he’d agree he didn’t expect Ariza to end up as the 25^th best player (by averages) on the season (maybe top 50 if he were optimistic, but that’s quite a gap). I expected good things from Jordan, but again, I’d be lying if I thought he’d be that good (he ended up as the 40^th best by averages and 39^th by totals; I was thinking top-60-ish). But the fact is both DeAndre and Lance are now very interesting keeper options (Ariza less so as he’s older and a free agent, Stephenson despite the fact he only ended up as a top-100-ish player).

Drafting well is about more than good picks, though. (Every team had at least one great pick – Noah in the fourth and DeRozan in the tenth for Nick, Dragic in the fourth and Afflalo in the twelfth for Anna, Andre Drummond in the sixth and Carter-Williams in the tenth for Vivek, Korver and Stephenson for Connor, Gortat and Bosh for Chris, etc.) For instance, Annan’s draft: his first six rounds are super solid (especially Lowry in the fifth), but he also drafted Granger, Bargnani, and Gerald Wallace – all horrible picks at the time. So you have to avoid those clunkers, too, especially in the middle rounds where team strength is really determined. (Unfortunately, everybody had some clunkers, too.)

Let me stop chewing space and get to the explanation: from top to bottom, based on as little hindsight as possible, I’m going to pick Nutcrusher’s draft as the best of last year. Nick got gobsmacked with some bad luck, y’all. But at the time, I thought he made a solid pick at almost every turn, building in upside at various points. I certainly would not have predicted Pau’s year from hell after the departure of Howard; I thought that was a great pick. Vucevic and Noah were perhaps a little inflated, but solid big-man foundation picks nonetheless. 6^th round for Rondo, who was rumored to be coming back around Christmas, was a great upside gamble that didn’t quite work out, but I was pissed at the time (I wanted him). Ditto gambling on Eric Gordon, who is a straight stud when healthy (thus the discount). The tail end of Nick’s draft doesn’t look too impressive in hindsight, but at the time of the draft, each one of those picks had tons of promise (except Carlos Boozer, who was just a rotation pick): a bounce-back possibility for Manu (who did end up ranked well above a 12^th rounder); the microwave stylings of Thornton; Waiters potentially having a breakout (which he would have, if not for corrosive personality conflicts with Kyrie); Nene a solid pick-up for Washington; and Avery Bradley, who was on many pre-season sleeper lists.

No, it didn’t work out the way Nick wanted. Yes, maybe he took too many high-upside, injury-risk guys and deserved to get burned. But it’s amazing to me that he ended up as bad as he did. Solid last draft from Nick Quiroga.

Master of the Waiver Wire (75 ATPs):  FromDaWindowToLuol.  Awards are always interesting in hindsight. For instance, this award went to Chris last year, mostly because of Larry Sanders. And since he flipped Sanders in a trade that netted him Durant, I guess that worked out. But wow – if he would have kept that dude . . .

This year wasn’t as close as previous ones in my opinion, where a case could have been made for multiple peeps (with me coming in “second” every year; I’ve never given myself this award, which blows my mind). That changes this year. I always tend to have the most transactions, but I easily got the most production off the waiver wire last season: long stints of DJ Augustin (a top-100 guy over the second half), DeMarre Carroll (top 50-ish), Manu, Terrence Jones (top 50), and the Gorgui Dieng explosion I rode into the playoffs (top 50 over the last couple months). Sure, Chris and Dad both rode the Gerald Green train for spates, and Alan jumped on the Courtney Lee Memphis renaissance, but I think I earned this one.

(By the way, if you want a sure-fire way to continually win the regular season but lose in the playoffs – just like the Bulls – just be really active on the wire. Goddamnit.)

_________________

Here's where the ATP rankings end up after last year's finishes and awards:

(As a quick reminder, here's how you earn ATPs:  League Championship: 500 ATPs; Second Place: 200 ATPs; Third Place: 100 ATPs; Seventh Place (winner of the Consolation Bracket): 75 ATPs; Master of the Waiver Wire: 75 ATPs; Best Keepers: 75 ATPs; and Best Draft: 75 ATPs.)

1. Chris Quiroga (Young No Mo Still Gay, Thabeet Goes On, Young Gay Love Favors): 1875 ATPs

(Rank last year: 2.)

2014 Best Keepers (75)

2014 League Champion (500)

2013 League Champion (500)

2013 Best Draft (75)

2013 Master of the Waiver Wire (75)

2012 Best Draft (75)

2012 Master of the Waiver Wire (75)

2009 League Champion (500)

2. Bob Josephson (Balding Ballers): 1400 ATPs

(Rank last year: 1.)

2012 Master of the Waiver Wire (75)

2011 League Champion (500)

2011 Best Draft (75)

2011 Best Keepers (75)

2010 League Champion (500)

2009 Best Draft (75)

2009 Third Place (100)

3. Nick Quiroga/KC Tajaran (Nutcrushers): 925 ATPs

(Rank last year: 3.)

2014 Best Draft (75)

2013 Second Place (200)

2012 League Champion (500)

2011 Best Keepers (75)

2009 Master of the Waiver Wire (75)

4. Andy Josephson (Something Clever, Del Harris Del Negro, Metta World Peas, FromDaWindowToLuol): 800 ATPs

(Rank last year: 4.)

2014 Master of the Waiver Wire (75)

2014 Second Place (200)

2013 Third Place (100)

2013 Best Keepers (75)

2012 Seventh Place (75)

2012 Best Keepers (75)

2011 Second Place (200)

5. J.J./Jon Jay Tajaran (Moo Moo Mussolini, Mao Meow ZeMeow, TEAM CHAMPIONS, Vujabitches, Style Points): 425 ATPs

(Rank last year: 5.)

2014 Seventh Place (75)

2011 Seventh Place (75)

2010 Second Place (200)

2010 Best Draft (75)

6. Alan Robey (Brew-Ha Bandits): 375 ATPs

(Rank last year: 6.)

2014 Third Place (100)

2010 Master of the Waiver Wire (75)

2009 Second Place (200)

7. Connor Doyle (nee Angelo Alexander) (Knights of Rodanthe, Liberal Elite Media, Los Baby Jesuses): 300 ATPs

(Rank last year: 7.)

2012 Second Place (200)

2010 Third Place (100)

8. Annan Moy (Arbitrageurs, Phi Slamma Jamma, Joakim Noah 4 EVR, Deez Nets): 250 ATPs

(Rank last year: 8.)

2013 Seventh Place (75)

2012 Third Place (100)

2011 Master of the Waiver Wire (75)

9. Vivek Raval (28 Light Years Old): 175 ATPs

(Rank last year: 9.)

2011 Third Place (100)

2010 Seventh Place (75)

10. Anna Robey (Block O): 150 ATPs

(Rank last year: 10.)

2010 Best Keepers (75)

2009 Seventh Place (75)

ELIGIBLE KEEPERS for 2014-2015 SEASON

Here's the list of eligible keepers for the upcoming season, organized by team in alpha order (except for Block O, because she changed her team name). First column is your team, second column is the number of keeps left for that guy (1 keep left means this is the last draft you can keep them; if you don't trade them during the year, they go back into the draft pool next year). Fourth column is their keeper round. (If you don't understand the keeper round, see the keeper rules on this blog; it was the very first post.)

Without further ado:

Team	Keeps	Playa	Round
28 light years old	3	Blake Griffin	1 or 2
28 light years old	3	Ersan Ilyasova	2 or 3
28 light years old	2	Brook Lopez	4
28 light years old	3	Andre Drummond	5
28 light years old	3	Nerlens Noel	7
28 light years old	3	Trey Burke	8
28 light years old	3	Michael Carter-Williams	9
28 light years old	3	Anthony Bennett	10
28 light years old	3	Ben McLemore	11
28 light years old	3	Kelly Olynyk	11
28 light years old	3	J.J. Redick	12
28 light years old	3	Jrue Holiday	12
28 light years old	3	Otto Porter Jr.	13
28 light years old	3	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	14
28 light years old	3	Maurice Harkless	14
28 light years old	3	C.J. McCollum	15
Balding Ballers	3	Nicolas Batum	1 or 2
Balding Ballers	3	Al Jefferson	2 or 3
Balding Ballers	2	Kyrie Irving	3 or 4
Balding Ballers	3	Klay Thompson	3 or 4
Balding Ballers	3	Kenneth Faried	5
Balding Ballers	2	Larry Sanders	6
Balding Ballers	3	J.R. Smith	7
Balding Ballers	2	Thaddeus Young	8
Balding Ballers	1	Channing Frye	9
Balding Ballers	3	Jameer Nelson	9
Balding Ballers	1	Randy Foye	10
Balding Ballers	1	Khris Middleton	11
Balding Ballers	3	Tristan Thompson	11
Balding Ballers	1	Vince Carter	12
Balding Ballers	2	Chandler Parsons	13
Balding Ballers	1	Martell Webster	14
The King Returns	3	Andre Iguodala	1 or 2
The King Returns	3	Derrick Rose	2 or 3
The King Returns	3	Marc Gasol	2 or 3
The King Returns	3	Goran Dragic	3 or 4
The King Returns	3	LeBron James	1
The King Returns	3	Damian Lillard	4
The King Returns	3	Greivis Vasquez	5
The King Returns	3	Enes Kanter	6
The King Returns	3	Bradley Beal	8
The King Returns	1	Terrence Jones	10
The King Returns	3	Arron Afflalo	11
The King Returns	1	Corey Brewer	12
The King Returns	3	Robin Lopez	13
The King Returns	1	Taj Gibson	14
The King Returns	3	Marco Belinelli	15
Brew-Ha Bandits	2	Anthony Davis	1 or 2
Brew-Ha Bandits	3	Monta Ellis	2 or 3
Brew-Ha Bandits	3	Jeff Green	3 or 4
Brew-Ha Bandits	1	Deron Williams	1
Brew-Ha Bandits	3	Victor Oladipo	4
Brew-Ha Bandits	3	Zach Randolph	6
Brew-Ha Bandits	3	Evan Turner	7
Brew-Ha Bandits	3	Brandon Knight	9
Brew-Ha Bandits	1	Brandon Bass	12
Brew-Ha Bandits	3	Andrew Bogut	12
Brew-Ha Bandits	3	Trevor Ariza	13
Brew-Ha Bandits	2	Derrick Favors	14
Deez Nets	3	Josh Smith	1 or 2
Deez Nets	3	Chris Paul	1
Deez Nets	3	Kyle Lowry	4
Deez Nets	3	Kevin Martin	5
Deez Nets	3	Andrew Bynum	6
Deez Nets	2	Anderson Varejao	7
Deez Nets	1	Jodie Meeks	8
Deez Nets	3	O.J. Mayo	8
Deez Nets	3	Gerald Henderson	9
Deez Nets	3	Danny Granger	10
Deez Nets	3	Danilo Gallinari	11
Deez Nets	3	Andrea Bargnani	13
Deez Nets	1	Miles Plumlee	15
Deez Nets	1	John Henson	15
Deez Nets	3	Tobias Harris	15
Deez Nets	1	Omer Asik	16
FromDaWindowToLuol	3	Dirk Nowitzki	1 or 2
FromDaWindowToLuol	3	Paul Millsap	2 or 3
FromDaWindowToLuol	3	Carmelo Anthony	1
FromDaWindowToLuol	1	Stephen Curry	8
FromDaWindowToLuol	3	Russell Westbrook	9
FromDaWindowToLuol	3	DeAndre Jordan	12
FromDaWindowToLuol	1	D.J. Augustin	13
FromDaWindowToLuol	3	Giannis Antetokounmpo	14
Los Baby Jesuses	3	Mike Conley	1 or 2
Los Baby Jesuses	3	Jeff Teague	3 or 4
Los Baby Jesuses	3	Tony Parker	3 or 4
Los Baby Jesuses	3	Dwight Howard	1
Los Baby Jesuses	1	DeMarcus Cousins	4
Los Baby Jesuses	3	Tyreke Evans	4
Los Baby Jesuses	3	Nikola Pekovic	5
Los Baby Jesuses	2	Kemba Walker	7
Los Baby Jesuses	3	Kyle Korver	9
Los Baby Jesuses	3	Kyle Korver	9
Los Baby Jesuses	1	Josh McRoberts	10
Los Baby Jesuses	1	P.J. Tucker	10
Los Baby Jesuses	3	Joe Johnson	10
Los Baby Jesuses	3	Tiago Splitter	14
Los Baby Jesuses	3	Lance Stephenson	15
Nutcrushers	3	Pau Gasol	1 or 2
Nutcrushers	3	Nikola Vucevic	2 or 3
Nutcrushers	3	Joakim Noah	3 or 4
Nutcrushers	2	LaMarcus Aldridge	1
Nutcrushers	2	Kevin Love	4
Nutcrushers	3	David West	4
Nutcrushers	3	Eric Gordon	6
Nutcrushers	3	Paul Pierce	6
Nutcrushers	3	Ryan Anderson	7
Nutcrushers	3	DeMar DeRozan	9
Nutcrushers	3	Carlos Boozer	10
Nutcrushers	1	Markieff Morris	11
Nutcrushers	3	Dion Waiters	13
Nutcrushers	3	Nene Hilario	14
Nutcrushers	3	Avery Bradley	15
Nutcrushers	1	Rodney Stuckey	16
Style Points	3	Dwyane Wade	1 or 2
Style Points	3	Rudy Gay	2 or 3
Style Points	3	Eric Bledsoe	3 or 4
Style Points	3	John Wall	1
Style Points	3	Wesley Matthews	4
Style Points	3	Amir Johnson	5
Style Points	1	Ricky Rubio	7
Style Points	2	Jonas Valanciunas	8
Style Points	2	Greg Monroe	9
Style Points	3	Jamal Crawford	11
Style Points	3	Isaiah Thomas	12
Style Points	3	Darren Collison	15
Style Points	3	J.J. Hickson	16
Style Points	1	Glen Davis	16
Style Points	1	James Johnson	16
Style Points	1	Jordan Crawford	16
YoungGayLoveFavors	3	Chris Bosh	3 or 4
YoungGayLoveFavors	3	David Lee	3 or 4
YoungGayLoveFavors	2	Kevin Durant	1
YoungGayLoveFavors	3	James Harden	7
YoungGayLoveFavors	3	Kawhi Leonard	7
YoungGayLoveFavors	3	Brandon Jennings	8
YoungGayLoveFavors	3	Marcin Gortat	8
YoungGayLoveFavors	1	Gerald Green	9
YoungGayLoveFavors	2	Paul George	10
YoungGayLoveFavors	1	Mario Chalmers	13