Eligible Keepers for 2016-17

I updated this post with everyone that was kept. Guys kept have been highlighted. The organization gets a little funky when you get to my and JJ's keepers since we had our trade -- one of my keepers is on "JonJay"'s team and all of JJ's keepers are listed where my team is located. I just changed the name in the "Team" column for those players.

Team	Player	Round	Keeps
Alan	Nicolas Batum	3	3
Alan	Monta Ellis	4	3
Alan	Thaddeus Young	6	3
Alan	Draymond Green 	9	2
Alan	Harrison Barnes	10	3
Alan	Jared Sullinger	11	1
Alan	Aaron Gordon	11	3
Alan	Avery Bradley	12	3
Alan	Bojan Bogdanovic	12	3
Alan	Nikola Mirotic 	13	2
Alan	Matt Barnes	15	1
Alan	Darrell Arthur	16	1
Alan	Josh Richardson	16	1
Alan	Lance Stephenson	16	1
Anna	LeBron James 	1	1
Anna	Serge Ibaka	2 or 1	3
Anna	Damian Lillard 	3 or 2	1
Anna	Karl-Anthony Towns	4 or 3	3
Anna	Dirk Nowitzki	4	3
Anna	Bradley Beal	5	3
Anna	Gorgui Dieng	6	3
Anna	D'Angelo Russell	7	3
Anna	Stanley Johnson	8	3
Anna	Myles Turner	9	3
Anna	Evan Fournier	10	1
Anna	Brandon Knight 	11	2
Anna	Justise Winslow	12	3
Anna	Tony Parker	15	1
Anna	Dennis Schroder	15	3
Annan	Chris Paul 	1	1
Annan	Kyrie Irving	2 or 1	3
Annan	Kyle Lowry 	3 or 2	1
Annan	Al Jefferson	4 or 3	3
Annan	Dwight Howard	4	3
Annan	Zach Randolph	5	3
Annan	Michael Carter-Williams	6	3
Annan	Terrence Jones	7	3
Annan	Wesley Matthews	8	3
Annan	Joe Johnson	10	3
Annan	Rajon Rondo	11	3
Annan	Patrick Beverley	12	3
Annan	Trey Burke	12	3
Annan	Tobias Harris 	13	1
Annan	Marcus Morris	13	1
Annan	Jeremy Lin	15	3
Chris	Blake Griffin	1	3
Chris	DeMarcus Cousins 	3 or 2	2
Chris	Marcin Gortat	4 or 3	3
Chris	Trevor Ariza	4 or 3	3
Chris	Jonas Valanciunas	4	3
Chris	James Harden 	5	1
Chris	Robert Covington	6	3
Chris	Stephen Curry 	6	2
Chris	Kristaps Porzingis	11	3
Chris	Hassan Whiteside 	13	2
Chris	Luke Babbitt	16	1
Connor	John Wall	1	3
Connor	Klay Thompson 	2 or 1	2
Connor	Brook Lopez	3 or 2	3
Connor	DeMar DeRozan	4 or 3	3
Connor	Andrew Wiggins	4	3
Connor	Kawhi Leonard 	5	2
Connor	Kyle Korver 	7	1
Connor	Enes Kanter	8	3
Connor	Markieff Morris 	9	2
Connor	Al-Farouq Aminu	10	3
Connor	Andre Iguodala	10	3
Connor	Jusuf Nurkic	11	3
Connor	Luol Deng	11	3
Connor	Courtney Lee	13	1
Connor	Allen Crabbe	15	3
Connor	Tristan Thompson	15	3
Dad	LaMarcus Aldridge	1	3
Dad	Paul Millsap	2 or 1	3
Dad	Gordon Hayward	3 or 2	3
Dad	Greg Monroe	4 or 3	3
Dad	Kenneth Faried	4	3
Dad	Ryan Anderson	5	3
Dad	Jabari Parker	6	3
Dad	Isaiah Thomas 	7	2
Dad	J.R. Smith	10	3
Dad	Darren Collison	11	3
Dad	Mirza Teletovic	14	1
Dad	Evan Turner	14	3
Dad	Jerryd Bayless	16	1
Jonjay	Carmelo Anthony	1	3
Jonjay	Eric Bledsoe	1	3
Jonjay	Marc Gasol	2 or 1	3
Jonjay	Nikola Vucevic	2 or 1	3
Jonjay	Pau Gasol	3 or 2	3
Jonjay	DeMarre Carroll	4 or 3	3
Jonjay	Tim Duncan	4	3
Jonjay	Dwyane Wade	6	3
Jonjay	Deron Williams	7	3
Jonjay	Robin Lopez	7	3
Jonjay	J.J. Redick	8	3
Jonjay	Zaza Pachulia	14	3
Jonjay	Jamal Crawford	15	1
Jonjay	Jeff Green	15	1
Jonjay	Arron Afflalo	16	1
me	Devin Booker	16	1
KC	Kevin Love 	3 or 2	2
KC	Khris Middleton	4	3
KC	Kemba Walker 	5	2
KC	Marvin Williams	7	1
KC	Paul George 	8	2
KC	Will Barton	10	1
KC	Julius Randle 	11	2
KC	Mason Plumlee	12	1
KC	Zach LaVine	12	3
KC	Jae Crowder	14	3
KC	Ish Smith	15	1
KC	Willie Cauley-Stein	15	3
KC	JaMychal Green	16	1
KC	Michael Beasley	16	1
Me	Kevin Durant 	1	2
Me	Jimmy Butler	1	3
Me	Al Horford	2 or 1	3
Me	Reggie Jackson	3 or 2	3
Me	Rudy Gay	4 or 3	3
Me	Ricky Rubio	4	3
Me	C.J. McCollum	5	3
Me	Russell Westbrook 	7	1
JJ	Otto Porter	10	3
JJ	Gary Harris	11	1
Me	Giannis Antetokounmpo 	12	1
JJ	Rodney Hood	14	3
JJ	Alex Len	16	1
Vivek	Andre Drummond	2 or 1	3
Vivek	Jeff Teague	3 or 2	3
Vivek	Elfrid Payton	4 or 3	3
Vivek	Goran Dragic	4	3
Vivek	Nerlens Noel 	5	1
Vivek	Kobe Bryant	7	3
Vivek	Emmanuel Mudiay	8	3
Vivek	Jahlil Okafor	8	3
Vivek	Danilo Gallinari 	9	3
Vivek	Danny Green 	9	2
Vivek	DeAndre Jordan 	10	1
Vivek	Marcus Smart	11	3
Vivek	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	12	3
Vivek	Omri Casspi	14	1
Vivek	Rudy Gobert 	14	2
Vivek	Bobby Portis	16	1

ELIGIBLE KEEPERS FOR 2015-2016

Here you go, suckas.

Team	Player	Round	Keeps left
alan	Anthony Davis 	1	1
alan	Victor Oladipo	5	3
alan	Elfrid Payton	8	3
alan	Draymond Green	10	3
alan	Trevor Ariza 	12	2
alan	P.J. Tucker	11	1
alan	Derrick Favors 	13	1
alan	Nikola Mirotic	14	3
alan	Evan Turner	14	1
alan	Monta Ellis	2 or 3	3
anna	LeBron James 	1	2
anna	Kenneth Faried	4	3
anna	Pau Gasol	5	3
anna	Marcin Gortat	7	3
anna	Roy Hibbert	8	3
anna	Jordan Hill	8	3
anna	Arron Afflalo	9	3
anna	Trey Burke	9	3
anna	Eric Gordon	9	3
anna	Joel Embiid	10	3
anna	Jrue Holiday 	11	3
anna	Brandon Knight	12	3
anna	Rodney Stuckey 	15	3
anna	Ben McLemore	12	1
anna	Goran Dragic 	2 or 3	2
anna	Damian Lillard 	3 or 4	2
annan	Chris Paul 	1	2
annan	Jabari Parker	4	3
annan	Bradley Beal	5	3
annan	Kevin Martin	16	1
annan	Josh Smith	6	3
annan	Brandon Jennings	6	3
annan	Nikola Pekovic	7	3
annan	Carlos Boozer	9	3
annan	Marcus Smart	12	3
annan	Tobias Harris 	14	2
annan	Courtney Lee	13	1
annan	Nick Young	16	1
annan	Al Jefferson	1 or 2	3
annan	Deron Williams	2 or 3	3
annan	Kyle Lowry 	3 or 4	2
chris	George Hill	5	3
chris	James Harden 	6	2
chris	Stephen Curry 	7	3
chris	Hassan Whiteside	14	3
chris	DeMarcus Cousins 	3 or 4	3
connor	LaMarcus Aldridge	1	3
connor	Ryan Anderson	4	3
connor	Zach Randolph	5	3
connor	Kawhi Leonard 	6	3
connor	Reggie Jackson	7	3
connor	Kyle Korver 	8	2
connor	Taj Gibson	9	3
connor	Paul Pierce	10	3
connor	Markieff Morris 	10	3
connor	Avery Bradley	13	3
connor	Lance Stephenson 	14	2
connor	Mo Williams	14	1
connor	Donatas Motiejunas	15	1
connor	Boris Diaw	16	1
connor	Klay Thompson	2 or 3	3
connor	Mike Conley	2 or 3	3
dad	Serge Ibaka	1	3
dad	Jeff Teague	4	3
dad	Tyreke Evans	5	3
dad	Tony Parker	6	3
dad	Thaddeus Young 	7	1
dad	Isaiah Thomas	8	3
dad	Chandler Parsons 	12	1
dad	Anthony Morrow	12	1
dad	Wilson Chandler	14	3
dad	Brandon Bass	13	1
dad	Jusuf Nurkic	16	1
dad	Paul Millsap	1 or 2	3
dad	Kyrie Irving 	2 or 3	1
dad	Nikola Vucevic	3 or 4	3
Jonjay	John Wall 	1	2
Jonjay	Brook Lopez	3	3
Jonjay	Tim Duncan	4	3
Jonjay	Joe Johnson	6	3
Jonjay	Jeff Green	7	3
Jonjay	Greg Monroe	8	3
Jonjay	Amir Johnson	9	3
Jonjay	Darren Collison	10	3
Jonjay	Channing Frye	12	3
Jonjay	DeMarre Carroll	13	3
Jonjay	Harrison Barnes	11	1
Jonjay	Ed Davis	12	1
Jonjay	Jae Crowder	14	1
Jonjay	Jared Dudley	15	1
Jonjay	Dwyane Wade 	1 or 2	2
Jonjay	Eric Bledsoe 	2 or 3	2
KC	Dirk Nowitzki	1	3
KC	David West	4	3
KC	Kemba Walker 	6	3
KC	Luol Deng	7	3
KC	DeMar DeRozan 	8	2
KC	Paul George 	9	3
KC	Julius Randle	12	3
KC	Mason Plumlee	13	3
KC	Timofey Mozgov	12	1
KC	Enes Kanter	15	3
KC	Jordan Clarkson	16	1
KC	Aaron Brooks	15	1
KC	Isaiah Canaan	16	1
KC	Henry Walker	16	1
KC	Ty Lawson	2 or 3	3
KC	Kevin Love 	3 or 4	3
me	Kevin Durant 	1	3
me	Blake Griffin	1	3
me	Ricky Rubio	4	3
me	Jonas Valanciunas	6	3
me	Jeremy Lin	7	3
me	Russell Westbrook 	8	2
me	Danilo Gallinari	10	3
me	Khris Middleton	8	1
me	Lou Williams	9	1
me	Gorgui Dieng	12	3
me	Giannis Antetokounmpo 	13	2
me	Alex Len	15	1
me	Tiago Splitter	16	1
me	Marc Gasol	1 or 2	3
me	Jimmy Butler	3 or 4	3
vivek	Carmelo Anthony	1	3
vivek	Andre Drummond 	4	2
vivek	Andrew Wiggins	5	3
vivek	Nerlens Noel 	6	2
vivek	Michael Carter-Williams 	8	2
vivek	Kelly Olynyk	9	3
vivek	Danny Green	10	3
vivek	Corey Brewer	11	3
vivek	DeAndre Jordan 	11	2
vivek	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	13	3
vivek	Doug McDermott	14	3
vivek	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	14	3
vivek	Rudy Gobert	15	3
vivek	Jodie Meeks	16	1
vivek	Dwight Howard	1 or 2	3
vivek	Rajon Rondo	3 or 4	3

KEEPER STRATEGY

Since we've accumulated a few n00bs over the past couple of years, and because of certain conversations I've had with league mates (and trade negotiations I and others have had), I thought it would be fruitful to examine exactly what makes a good keeper in our league.

Some might say I'm giving away secrets or a competitive advantage, but considering that keeper trades that totally should have happened in the past haven't happened, I think it will benefit the overall health of the league to do this analysis. So pay attention.

Keeper Round is More Important Than You Think
The general point of this post is that where you get to keep a guy is almost more important than the quality of the guy in the abstract. We all want to keep stars on our teams, but there are only so many of those to go around. Keeping a quality rotation guy in a late round is an underused option. Keeping a star in a late round is the utmost in keeper value. (And keeping a star right around where he'd be drafted anyway isn't really doing much for your team.)

To illustrate this, I'm going to pull some figures from last year's ESPN player rater (which you can find here; keep in mind, these are totals, not averages -- in averages, for instance, Anthony Davis would be a super stud and Russell Westbrook would be a borderline first rounder, but they both missed a significant number of games). If you're not familiar, the player rater uses standard deviations and league averages in each stat category to determine how valuable each player is above the "norm" in each category. The total player rater score is simply all the category scores added together. (Yahoo's ranking system uses a similar, but not exactly the same, formula.)

These figures can give us a sense of the expected value in each round of the draft (and other tiers). I've created this chart as a handy reference. Pay more attention to the numbers than the names:

THE SUPER STUDS				SIXTH ROUND				TWELFTH ROUND
Name	Pick	PR Score		Name	Pick	PR Score		Name	Pick	PR Score
Durant	1	21.31		R Foye	51	6.52		SLivingston	111	3.8
Curry	2	17.53		R Jackson	60	6.01		J Sullinger	120	3.3
LeBron	3	16.55
				SEVENTH ROUND				THIRTEENTH ROUND
FIRST ROUND (REMAINING)				Name	Pick	PR Score		Name	Pick	PR Score
Name	Pick	PR Score		R Hibbert	61	6		D Green	121	3.22
K Love	4	14.54		DWilliams	70	5.51		E Kanter	130	2.88
P George	10	12.67
				EIGHTH ROUND				FOURTEENTH ROUND
SECOND ROUND				Name	Pick	PR Score		Name	Pick	PR Score
Name	Pick	PR Score		T Gibson	71	5.5		R Allen	131	2.85
J Wall	11	12.56		P Gasol	80	5.23		M Morris	140	2.53
C Bosh	20	9.69
				NINTH ROUND				FIFTEENTH ROUND
THIRD ROUND				Name	Pick	PR Score		Name	Pick	PR Score
Name	Pick	PR Score		A Afflalo	81	5.19		J Crawford	141	2.5
P Millsap	21	9.41		B Bass	90	4.92		R Jefferson	150	2.27
T Ariza	30	8.47
				TENTH ROUND				SIXTEENTH ROUND
FOURTH ROUND				Name	Pick	PR Score		Name	Pick	PR Score
Name	Pick	PR Score		Westbrook	91	4.92		GHenderson	151	2.25
L Aldridge	31	8.42		V Carter	100	4.46		MWilliams	160	1.79
K Thompso	40	7.74
				ELEVENTH ROUND
FIFTH ROUND				Name	Pick	PR Score
Name	Pick	PR Score		MBelinelli	101	4.43
G Green	41	7.66		P Mills	110	3.9
T Lawson	50	6.59

That's a lot of data to digest. For those who are more visually inclined, here's the same data in graph form:

Lessons from the Data
Let's see what we can glean from the data.

• The Super Studs are amazing. Look at the numbers. Curry is equivalent to a late first rounder (Paul George or John Wall) PLUS a ninth rounder (Aaron Afflalo). Durant is like a late first plus a late third rounder (Trevor Ariza or LaMarcus Aldridge). Put another way, Curry is worth two Aldridges and Durant is worth two Nic Batums (again, on totals, not averages). It's like being able to start 11 guys instead of 10 every day, with that 11th guy being very valuable.
• 
  
• As the rounds go on, value flattens. Studs are very valuable, first and second rounders are next, and then picks start getting more equivalent (or "linear" in the value progression). Another way to realize this:
• 
  
• The score difference between the top pick and the end of the first round is around 10 points.
• The difference between the beginning of the second and end of the second: 3 points.
• Difference between start of third and end of third: 1 point.
• Every other round: less than 1 point difference from start to finish.
• 
  
• Based on the scores, the average "first rounder" is equivalent in value to two late fifth rounders or three eleventh rounders. Again, it's like being able to play more people in your lineup every day than your opponents.

How to Use This for Keeper Analysis

It's pretty simple. Let's say you've got Paul Millsap (9.41 value) as a fifth round keeper. Is that better than Roy Hibbert (6.00 value) as a fourteenth round keeper? Let's do the math:

• Millsap's value (9.41) - expected value of a 5th rounder (7.1) = 2.31
• Hibbert's value (6.00) - expected value of 14th rounder (2.68) = 3.32

So by this analysis, Hibbert would actually be a better keeper, even if he's a worse player than Millsap and even though both have keeper value.

The essence of this is replacement value and opportunity cost. If you keep Millsap in the fifth, sure, you're getting value there. But if you didn't keep him, you'd still draft a fifth-round-level player -- which replaces a larger proportion of Millsap's value than a 14th-round-level player would replace Hibbert's value.

Another way to look at it -- what's better, A or B?

• (A)  Millsap (9.41) in the 5th  +  a 14th rounder (2.68)  =  12.09
• (B)  A 5th rounder (7.1)  +  Hibbert in the 14th (6.00)  =  13.01

Option B gives you more overall value on your team.

Caveats and Cavills
Of course, this is pretty quick-and-dirty analysis. We play in a head-to-head league, not rotisserie, so averages are probably more indicative of value than totals. And how well you draft makes a big difference -- the guy you draft in the 5th round might end up returning 3rd-round value or he might return 10th-round value. We just don't know until the games start. (Of course, this is why we even have good late-round keepers: some guys outperform their draft slots.) And past performance doesn't guarantee future returns -- we each will evaluate players differently, and so will disagree whether a guy is, say, a 3rd-round level guy or a 5th-round level guy.

But the overall principle still applies: you should be thinking about replacement value and opportunity cost when assessing keeper value. If any of you would have taken me up on my trade offers involving Klay Thompson a couple years ago, you'd now have a current 5th-rounder (by Yahoo pre-ranks; probably a 4th rounder in our league with all the keepers) in like the 10th round -- or, in other words, someone returning 3.5 to 4 surplus player-rater points (the equivalent of having an extra Danny Green, Jimmy Butler, or Josh Smith on your team).