Looking toward Next Year

Following up on my last post in the league message board, I've done some analysis to see if having keepers will make the competitive balance any different from year to year. Obviously, it's all hypothetical at this point, but I don't think it does.

In any given year, each manager makes roster choices: which players to target, how high to reach for sleepers, how to achieve statistical balance, whether to achieve statistical balance, etc. (At least, every manager should do this. Maybe you all just come in to the draft trying to get the "best" player in a given spot, with no prior thought as to what makes a guy "better." In that case, the keeper system wouldn't be your biggest hurdle to success anyway.) Every year, each manager gets some right and gets some wrong. This will happen with keepers, too. There will be real-NBA roster changes that influence playing time, rookies emerging early creating positional log jams, trades, injuries, etc., that we will all do our best to foresee, but will never be entirely successful. As an initial matter, this is the biggest reason the keeper system won't make things unfair: the only way you can believe that is by believing that everyone will always make the correct keeper choices and will always dodge bad luck.

That being said, the point of the keeper system is to help you big your team more effectively while building in continuity from year to year, to make this more fun. You're trying to get an advantage. But everyone is doing this, just as everyone does it every draft.

Another argument (implied, as neither Annan nor anyone else has elaborated, so I'm spitballing) for why keepers might throw things off is that it constrains the player pool every draft; many of the high-upside guys will already be locked in to rosters, so your opportunities to improve your team via the draft are limited. This was the thing I wanted to explore more, and the results are below.

As I said, this is all hypothetical, but I've run a mock draft for next year with keepers involved so we can see some examples of rosters and compare them to what we have this year (or at the very least get a sense of how it might work, and what level of talent will be available at any given pick). I assumed a system where the last place team gets to pick their draft spot, and so on in reverse order of finish. I used our current standings as the league finish and guessed at where people would want to draft (just as I guessed at who people would want to pick). Obviously, this isn't perfect. We'll all have different views of player values and target strategies. I spent a lot of time on this, but I didn't stress too much about making sure that everyone picked the absolute best player at their spot. First of all, there's no way to know that in the middle of this season; rosters will change, etc. Second, there are always guys that fall in drafts, guys who are always undervalued, guys who are always overvalued, etc. I used what I thought I knew about each owner's proclivities and did the best I could, but I didn't go back through and tinker. The point wasn't to get a perfect draft, just an example of who was available at any given pick, and what rosters might look like in the end. If there is a guy you would have rather picked, you can at least see if he might have been available, and where you could have drafted him.

The results (click the pic for a larger, readable image; keepers are marked in yellow):


(For clarity purposes, "Il Mago" is Bargnani and "Super White" is Dunleavy.)

I'm not going to dissect the relative quality of each team (maybe Chris wants to tackle that, or someone else, I don't know), but each roster looks pretty normal to me. Nutcrushers could be potentially dominant if both Stuckey and Jeff Green take the next step in their evolution as players, and Block O and I get a nice value out of our young guards Eric Gordon and Westbrook, respectively. But really, these rosters don't look tons different than if we drafted from scratch. I'd have to think any keeper after third round level would have been drafted earlier than their keeper spot (which is why you kept them), but everybody's got a couple of good values, so it evens out. And there are potentially multiple guys in each round who could outperform any of the keepers (e.g., Lou Williams, Kirk Hinrich, and Luke Ridnour have just as much of a chance to perform as Jeff Green or Eric Gordon -- it's not like we're comparing Gordon to Reggie Evans).

So, as I see it, the only reason to think that money and keepers are incompatible is not based on any practical disparity in competitive balance, but merely an intellectual distaste for it. But I view it as a poker game. At the first hand, the slate is clean. But every subsequent hand, the slate is messy; some stacks are bigger than others, the button passes, each hand involves different balances of power, strategy, and opportunity. And yet, even with all of that, it still comes down to the cards, and everyone is at the same level when it comes to chance. It doesn't matter your skill level: if you don't get cards at the right times (or if you run into people who DO have cards), you're going to lose. And sometimes someone who doesn't know at all what they're doing gets lucky. That's the game. You have control over many elements, but luck still plays a big factor. And money is on the line, each and every hand. You don't equalize the stacks every time the deal passes around the table, right? And, as I think is illustrated above with the arguments and mock draft, nobody will ever be so short stacked or so big stacked as to greatly throw off the game. Nobody's going to get blinded out.

(I know there are obvious retorts to and holes in my analogy, but it helped me put things in perspective. We're playing a complicated game. This isn't like blackjack or roulette.)

Discuss.

The Lowdown on the Downlow

No, guys, I'm not talking about "hedonistic Bisexual Black men" (http://www.blackcommentator.com/149/149_cover_lowdown_downlow.html). . . I'm talking about Real Ultimate Fantasy Hoops Analysis. And I (regrettably/serendipitously?) came up with the title for this first mega-blog post before discovering the inane phrase's previous usage. Now I can't help sharing, and we're stuck with it, in all its pompous glory. Like a bunch of guys with a bunch of jars, just trying to tease out all the shards of glass. If you don't know what I'm talking about, PLEASE do yourself a favor and DON'T try to find out. Leave it as a vaguely suggestive symbol of unpleasantry.

So in all of the freaky fantasy punditry and pedantry that I have undertaken during these first nine weeks of the 2008-2009 NBA season, my spreadsheet-formulatin' ass has come up with a lot of intensive data that I certainly will never quite parse for all of its potential. And I found that a fitting metaphor for a lot of our fantasy squads (and indeed, for the NBA in general)-- there are a tremendous glut of talented players on our teams who may or may not "get there," and who mostly languish on the ends of our benches, or just on the outer cusp of the steady rotations of their real NBA teams. It's simply not possible to have all of these players pan out-- there aren't enough shots in a game or minutes in a season to go around and satisfy all of the J.J. Redicks and Kyle Lowrys of the world, so at some point we have to try to ignore all of those chump-asses and look very carefully at only the *most important* playas in the game (and in our fantasy squads).

So now that the NBA season is about 1/3 of the way complete and the ephemeral hot and cold streaks have turned into tangible, sustained patterns and trends, it's time for a first look at "The Big Picture"-- this column is an effort to trim the fat of our league, to look at the cores of our teams for now and the years to come, and to assess the Keeper Outlook for all of our teams.

I probably won't do this but maybe once or twice a year (if ever again, in fact), because I don't want to do ALL of the homework for you slackasses. And as the season grows longer, and our Keeper Declaration Deadline grows closer and closer, it is less likely that I will actually offer any perspective for you suckaz on "Who to Keep," because, let's face it-- I want you to make mistakes with this stuff. I want to *draft* the guys you should have KEPT. But I'm too nerdy and obsessive about this stuff not to share some of my thoughts, in this early stage of the game.

Obviously, there's a lot of basketball left to be played, and many trends will certainly change as young players emerge, old players fade, a select few players change teams, and overall team dynamics shift. But there are still some clear-cut favorites, the way I see it, who stand to benefit greatly from their current roster make-up in our elaborate Keeper Scheme. And then there's Angelo.

Without further ado, here are the picks that *I* would probably make if I were running the show for each of our teams (in alphabetical order), as well as some possible alternatives, some completely arbitrary “Keeper Grades,” and a lil' bit (ok, a lot) of running commentary:


From data pulled 12/26/08. . .

________________________________________

- 28 light years old -

PICKS:
Kobe Bryant - 1st round (playing at 1st-round level right now)
Chris Bosh - 2nd round (playing at 2nd-round level right now)
Jose Calderon - 3rd round (playing at 3rd-round level right now)
Jameer Nelson - 12th round (playing at 3rd-round level right now)

This team is in an interesting situation, in that they are the ONLY team (by my count) who would potentially Keep more than the first one or two players from this year's draft. But with the way Kobe, Bosh, and Calderon are playing, and with their ages and complementary stat lines, I think they'd represent a great first three picks for next year's draft. Throw in Jameer Nelson, who has absolutely blown up in Orlando (especially in the month of December), improving on virtually every single stat category from last year's performance, and you've got a nice lil' starting roster. The problem is. . . I'm not sure how much *value* they gain by "merely" having an awesome starting core for the draft. With these Keepers, Vivek would not have a pick until the 4th round of the draft. It's one of the biggest question marks that still remains about how this Keeper League format is going to work out-- whether it's better to Keep late-round "value" or "upside" guys, or to Keep your early-round, reliable Big Guns. Because of his team make-up, 28 light years old has almost no choice. A few other decent candidates remain, however, if any of the aforementioned picks falls out of favor.

ALTERNATIVES:
Ray Allen - 5th (3rd) - but I think he's just too old to use a Keeper on
Al Harrington - 8th (9th) - but he's shown some ability to blow up in his new digs at New York, and could well do the same into next year
D.J. Augustin - 14th (11th) - probably will improve, but it remains to be seen

OVERALL KEEPER GRADE: B+ (tied - 5 out of 10)
________________________________________

- Balding Ballers -

PICKS:
LeBron James – 1st (1st)
Paul Millsap – 7th (4th)
Wilson Chandler – 11th (8th)
Delonte West – 13th (4th)

Another interesting case here, where things could really change for the Ballers as the season (and next off-season) goes on. LeBron is a lock. Millsap could be a great Keeper (and would be a 7th-rounder right now, based on his 30th-place rank and our handy little formula for calculating the Keeper Round of undrafted free agents – square root of (160 * their actual rank)), especially if something happens with Carlos Boozer. Delonte West is playing out of his mind as a hyper-efficient complement to LeBron and Mo Williams, and Wilson Chandler could continue to benefit greatly from D’Antoni’s system in New York. Unfortunately for the Ballers, several “upside” guys who were perhaps drafted for Keeper purposes are simply borderline, at best—Kevin Durant (3rd), Michael Beasley (6th), Al Thornton (10th), and even LaMarcus Aldridge (7th). But then there are two Big Guns who are playing outstanding fantasy ball right now in Jason Kidd and Yao Ming, but who might just represent too much of a crapshoot for Keeper purposes. If Yao can (somehow, miraculously) stay healthy this whole year, he would probably be worth a Keeper. And if Jason Kidd can have successful hip replacement surgery, he might be too. They’re both just too uncertain for my liking, right now.

ALTERNATIVES:
Jason Kidd – 3rd (1st) – too damn old??
Yao Ming – 4th (2nd) – too risky??
Kevin Durant – 2nd (3rd) – good, but the jump up a round kills much of his value

OVERALL KEEPER GRADE: B (7 out of 10)
________________________________________

- Block O -

PICKS:
Chris Paul – 1st (1st)
Carlos Boozer – 2nd (3rd)
John Salmons – 9th (5th)
Marvin Williams – 11th (5th)

Chris Paul and anyone else basically makes your long-term prospects pretty decent. But Boozer is only there as a decent Keeper because he’s a good complement to Paul. And Salmons and Marvin Williams are two guys who are WAY better in fantasy than in real-life, but might just be good enough to Keep, as a result. Very low cost, high-reward. A small problem for Block O is that there aren’t a whole lot of alternate options if any of these picks seem like a stretch. They’re pretty loaded with underperformers like Sam Dalembert, Peja Stojakovic, and Tyson Chandler. Not a team that I’d want to be in charge of. Although I’d obviously love to have Chris Paul to build my team around for the next 3 years.

ALTERNATIVES:
Rudy Fernandez – 10th (8th) – but his production is too inconsistent
Boris Diaw – 12th (16th) – but his performance in Charlotte has been pretty great

OVERALL KEEPER GRADE: C+ (8 out of 10)
________________________________________

- Brew-Ha Bandits -

PICKS:
Deron Williams – 1st (2nd)
Mo Williams – 7th (5th)
Steve Blake – 9th (6th)
Tayshaun Prince – 11th (8th)

Perhaps predictably, the future does not look very bright for the Brew-Ha Bandits, one of the current bottom-feeders of our league. Personally, I’m not sold on Deron Williams as a 1st-rounder next year. And when Steve Blake and Tayshaun Prince are two of your four Keepers, you’re hurting pretty bad. But there isn’t much else here at all to work with, as Brew-Ha famously spent a 1st-rounder this year on Shawn Marion, and has practically two or three rosters’ worth of underperformers like Michael Redd, Luol Deng, and slightly-above-mediocre guys like Andrei Kirilenko and Troy Murphy. And those are some of the *notable* guys. Yikes! Sounds like time to swing a deal or few. I’m ashamed to be in the very low company of Liberal Elite Media as the only teams that have lost to the Brew-Ha Bandits so far this year, but I’m surprised and impressed that many of the losses have been fairly close. Still, there’s a lot of ground to make up the rest of this season, or in the draft next year with these Keepers.

ALTERNATIVES:
Marcus Camby – 2nd (1st) – but he’s too damn old
Ronnie Brewer – 10th (10th) – good upside, but is it good enough??

OVERALL KEEPER GRADE: F+ (10 out of 10)
________________________________________

- Del Harris Del Negro -

PICKS:
Dwyane Wade – 1st (1st)
Rajon Rondo – 8th (4th)
Spencer Hawes – 10th (8th)
Nate Robinson – 12th (6th)

To my eyes, Del Harris has a great line-up for our Keeper system, including a top-flight Fantasy Dominator in Dwyane Wade and a number of solid late-round guys who are looking like they could provide a great foundation for the next couple of years. The great thing about this team is that they will still have the flexibility to add valuable parts with picks in rounds 2 through 7 before the Keepers start locking into draft spots. So they could be a really deep team next year right out of the gate. And several alternatives could easily jump to the fore and take a spot from, say, Spencer Hawes. There’s a lot of value deep in the roster (for instance, I’m sure Nutcrushers would be happy to have a mulligan on Russell Westbrook), and even potential for a couple of highly-drafted guys in Joe Johnson and Andris Biedrins to slide into Keeperdom. On the flipside, Del could be one of the most likely teams NEXT YEAR to lament the loss of a few guys he “woulda, coulda, shoulda Kept” if things don’t quite turn out as well as hoped with his precious four selections. Tough spot to be in.

ALTERNATIVES:
Joe Johnson – 2nd (2nd) – good, but the jump up a round kills much of his value
Andris Biedrins – 5th (5th) – too inconsistent
Russell Westbrook – 14th (14th) – too risky, but huge upside

OVERALL KEEPER GRADE: A- (tied – 3 out of 10)
________________________________________

- Liberal Elite Media -

PICKS:
Dwight Howard – 1st (7th)
Josh Smith – 2nd (11th)
Derrick Rose – 7th (7th)
Chris Duhon – 11th (6th)

The future is bleak for Liberal Elite Media. The main problem is that Dwight Howard and Josh Smith are almost too good and too young NOT to Keep, but also that Angelo doesn’t seem to know how to build a successful team around either of them. Derrick Rose and Duhon are nice, but could easily disappear into thin air with inefficient play. Beyond these four, there’s slim pickings in the rest of the roster. You’ll find more players who could be dropped outright from Liberal Elite’s current roster than could end up valuable Keeper candidates. So best of luck trying to figure out how to win with Dwight Howard. “Help me Superman, you’re my only hope!”

ALTERNATIVES:
David Lee – 6th (5th) – good, but the jump up a round kills much of his value
Trevor Ariza – 11th (8th) – too inconsistent
Grant Hill – 15th (12th) – too old

OVERALL KEEPER GRADE: D- (9 out of 10)
________________________________________

- Mao Meow ZeMeow -

PICKS:
Chauncey Billups – 3rd (2nd)
Zach Randolph – 9th (5th)
Ben Gordon – 10th (4th)
Nene Hilario – 11th (3rd)

Nice lil’ situation here, and perhaps the antithesis of the front-loaded scenario that a few other teams (like 28 light years old) find themselves in. Mao has a few early-rounders that it would be really tough to spend a Keeper on this year (Garnett, Caron Butler, and Andrew Bynum in the first three rounds), but an enormous glut of late-rounders who are far outperforming their draft position or who have some reasonable potential to do so next year. Randolph is playing very well even AFTER his trade to the Clippers (but may lose value depending on how the frontcourt rotation shakes out there with Camby and Kaman), and Ben Gordon and Nene Hilario represent perhaps two of the Top 5 biggest overperformances/breakouts of anyone in the league this year (right up there in the running with Jameer Nelson, Delonte West, Mike Bibby, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, and Devin Harris—is it any coincidence that these are all PG-ish or small SG types, other than Hilario???). Additionally, Billups has reignited the fire in Denver, and could continue to do so through next season as well.

ALTERNATIVES:
Roger Mason – 11th (8th) – too inconsistent
Zydrunas Ilgauskas – 11th (7th) – too old
Kendrick Perkins – 15th (14th) – too inconsistent
Udonis Haslem – 15th (10th) – too mediocre, come on! Udonis Haslem???

OVERALL KEEPER GRADE: B+ (tied – 5 out of 10)
________________________________________

- Nutcrushers -

PICKS:
Amare Stoudemire – 1st (1st)
Al Jefferson – 2nd (2nd)
O.J. Mayo – 8th (5th)
Rodney Stuckey – 12th (10th)

If there is one silver lining from the otherwise-abysmal Nowitzki/Roy/Okur for Amare/Iverson trade (sorry—I can’t help myself from mentioning it at every opportunity), it’s that Nutcrushers swapped a 30-year-old PF in the latter stages of his prime for a 26-year-old PF/C who should (theoretically) just be entering the most productive statistical years of his career. For Keeper purposes, what else could you want? This allows for the 1-2 Keeper Combo of Amare and Al Jefferson to be the extremely solid frontcourt foundation of Nutcrushers for the foreseeable future (or at least until he swings another bad trade—doh!). Throw in any combination that includes some of the most exciting young players with Golden Opportunities to Blossom in the next couple of years, and you have what I would call perhaps the most enviable Keeper position of any team in our league. If “Orenthal James” Mayo can possibly improve on his completely awesome rookie year, he might turn out to be the steal of this year’s AND the NEXT THREE YEARS’ drafts (although he has shown signs of mortality of late), and Rodney Stuckey’s newfound starting opportunity is already starting to pay off in spades. If any of these guys falter, there’s Brook Lopez and Jeff Green who could both turn into tremendous steals in next year’s draft in the 12th or 13th round, respectively. And James Posey ain’t bad either, especially as a 15th-rounder. This team looks scary. If anything, there are almost TOO many possibilities here.

ALTERNATIVES:
Brook Lopez – 12th (8th) – nothing wrong with going this way
Jeff Green – 13th (9th) – nothing wrong with going this way either
James Posey – 15th (8th) – deeeeamn, nothing wrong here either; perhaps a little old

OVERALL KEEPER GRADE: A (2 out of 10)
________________________________________

- Phi Slamma Jamma -

PICKS:
Rashard Lewis – 2nd (2nd)
Gilbert Arenas – 6th (2nd round potential)
Mike Bibby – 8th (3rd)
Monta Ellis – 10th (4th round potential)

This is probably the most obvious case where an Owner in our league really considered Keeper values when he went into this year’s draft, and perhaps reached on a few players (Arenas and Ellis, namely) where he could have gotten better value for this year, but instead sacrificed that for a shot at sustained dominance for years to come. As a result, and because of the make-up of these two players’ undeniably immense talent, the nature of their frightening injuries, and the dynamics of their slashing- and quickness-based offensive skill sets, I see this as a potential All-or-Nothing situation for Phi Slamma. Not to mention that there are very slim pickings in the rest of the Phi Slamma line-up, at least as far as Keeper considerations are concerned. So if Arenas and Ellis bounce back into prime or near-prime form next year (not even *this* year), Phi Slamma could have ALREADY lined up some top-quality talent in the 6th and 10th rounds of next year’s draft, respectively. Then with Rashard Lewis’s very unique statistical line and Mike Bibby’s unlikely resurgence in Atlanta, you have a couple of other quality Keepers in the mix. Now, on the flipside, I don’t think Phi Slamma has ANY other way to go, with guys like Richard Jefferson, Emeka Okafor, Baron Davis, Shaquille O’Neal, Elton Brand, and (gag!) Tracy McGrady (the oldest 29-year-old on the planet) making up the *good* players on his roster. It looks like the one player there who is most likely to live up to this year’s draft spot is the one you would *least* consider for Keeper purposes—36-year-old Shaquille O’Neal. Good luck, Phi Slamma. I hope it doesn’t work out for you.

ALTERNATIVES:
Larry Hughes – 15th (10th) – too Larry Hughes

OVERALL KEEPER GRADE: A+/C- (1 out of 10)*

* - If Arenas and/or Ellis don’t spring back to full strength, the team unravels to a C- and 8th out of 10; personally, I'd put my money that we end up somewhere in between, but closer to the A+ than the C-
________________________________________

- Young-Gay-Artest -

PICKS:
Dirk Nowitzki – 1st (1st)
Danny Granger – 2nd (2nd)
Brandon Roy – 3rd (2nd)
Devin Harris – 6th (2nd)

Finally on to my team. I like my team. I like my team quite a bit, in fact. But I’m not 100% sold on them this year *or* next year, and the thing about my team is that they are perhaps the one team in our league that, due to Keeper selections, is MOST LIKELY to resemble the same team NEXT year that they are THIS year. So right now, I have an extremely deep team with at least 4, 5, or maybe even 6 guys who could reasonably finish the year with a ranking in the Yahoo! Top 20. But I still might not win the league, because of all of the overlapping talent and duplicated statistical performance. But basically, with this year and (as I see it) with next year, as Dirk, Granger, Roy, and Harris go, my team goes. That said, it could be *very* nice to get borderline 1st- and 2nd-round value out of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 6th rounds right off the bat. It’s just going to be especially important (and tricky) to flesh out the entire remainder of my line-up by finding the diamonds in the rough in the later stages of the draft. Now, there *are* a few reasonable alternatives in the mix, with players who are decently outperforming their draft standing right now (or could easily do so the rest of the year), but none of them are exactly spring chickens (Vince Carter, Jason Terry, Manu Ginobili) whether they could continue at a high level next year is a difficult question that will probably take the remainder of the season to predict adequately.

ALTERNATIVES:
Vince Carter – 4th (3rd) – too risky
Jason Terry – 8th (2nd) – too old
Manu Ginobili – 10th (10th) – too old, but might spring back
Rafer Alston – 11th (9th) – too inconsistent

OVERALL KEEPER GRADE: A- (tied – 3 out of 10)